AWARE: UK competitive intelligence consultants offering competitor analysis and research services, competitive intelligence training & workshops and CI and marketing strategy consultancy.

Risk Analysis - anticipating competitor actions

The Brief
Our client, had heard rumours that a competitor would alter one of their drink products available in the UK and that test marketing was being conducted in a foreign country. We were asked to investigate and report

The Result
We correctly anticipated the competitor's actions therefore allowing our client to proactively respond rather than reactively try to counter the moves.

How we obtained the information
We were able to prove that the competitor was test marketing the new formula and was using the new name in another country. Unfortunately, although we had circumstantial evidence on what the strategy was, we could not confirm that this was the strategy that would be implemented from the information we'd found. Instead we used a game-theory approach, to model the risk factors for:

• Change of name and formulation
• Name change only
• Formulation change only

We predicted a formulation change only with a name change to follow after the new taste had been accepted. This is exactly what happened.

(Note: It may have been possible to confirm the UK strategy using illegal or unethical approaches but we would not take this approach - and further would warn clients against even considering such approaches to gathering information).

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