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About Us > Help & Support > FAQs > Question 23: Win Loss Analysis & Product Life Cycles

Marketing & Competitive Intelligence FAQ
Win Loss Analysis & Product Life Cycles


I work for a company that automates the supply of messages to pagers – for example to ask sales staff at several different locations to call in to the main office, or to tell them about a special offer. This is now a dying technology, and so we've started producing products serving a similar purpose, but broadcasting SMS messages to mobile phones.

We're finding that this is a very fast changing market with frequent technology updates. We're also losing clients to companies that are much smaller and younger than we are but don't know why as these companies don't have the reputation and experience that we have. What should we do?

First, congratulations on having the courage to switch to a related but replacement technology when you realised that your initial market was dying. In fact, your question suggests that you have some understanding of your competitive situation, but are finding that the rules that you were used to when you operated in the mature / declining pager market have changed.

Changing competitive environment

This links to some basic marketing theory: the product life cycle. All products and services have a life-cycle, and there are essentially four stages:

The introduction stage starts with a new product. This is not the same as introducing a new brand or product version into an existing market, but refers to a new product type or category. In your market, the introduction of G3 mobile phones, incorporating PDAs, video, digital cameras and the like would fit. In the first stage, there is relatively slow growth, and few competitors.

The growth stage occurs following market acceptance of the new product category. The growth potential attracts competitors, who often introduce new features as a way of gaining share from the company or companies that first introduced the product. This results in rapid change, with further market expansion. Towards the end of this phase, the rate of growth starts to slow, and you sometimes find that weaker competitors leave the market or get acquired by other companies buying market share.

The maturity stage has fewer but stronger competitors. In the maturity stage, there is little scope for growth, except by taking share from other companies operating in the market, and so the market becomes more stable, dominated by a few strong players.

In the decline stage the product becomes outdated, sales decrease and the product eventually dies. A few niche players may remain serving the market, but the competitive situation is relatively stable and easy to manage.

The pager market is likely to be in the final, decline, stage which is why the change to SMS messaging systems has been a shock. This SMS messaging market is probably in the growth phase, where you encounter many more competitors who are introducing new products.

Customers are also learning about the products and so your experience in a different field may not count for much. Instead, customers want to feel confident that they are buying the most up-to-the-minute technology, so you need to ensure that your products stay up-to-date and include the latest product features. You need to take a much closer look at what is happening technologically than you may be used to.

Losing customers

The next bit of your question asks why you are losing customers. This is relatively simple to solve in theory (although not always in practice). Essentially, you need to conduct a win-loss analysis, looking at the reasons you win customers and why you lose them. To do this, you need to ask them.

When you gain a new client, try and find out who they used before (if anyone) and why they chose you. Don't just assume that it was the brilliance of your sales agent, even if that is what he or she has told you. There can be many other reasons and you need to know them. You can then use the information to help your customer targeting.

You also need to find out why you lost, or failed to gain customers. Again, don't take your sales agent's word for granted. He may be right that the competitor came in with a lower offer. However there could be other reasons that you need to uncover if you are to succeed in the new market. Examples include service levels, perceived quality, technology, and confidence in the product or the sales agent's knowledge and approach.

Win-loss analysis can be conducted internally. However many companies prefer to outsource this kind of work, as there is a danger that customers may not always wish to say the truth to the company directly. The company may also not take a fully objective view when following up wins and losses. Sometimes a more honest and objective opinion can be gathered by using someone seen as neutral by the customer.

Note: This FAQ was originally published in the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professional's membership magazine.

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Quick Tip

Quick Tip: Deadly Sins

The Seven Deadly Business Sins

1) Greed - Are you satisfied with what you've achieved or are you always seeking more, and never consolidating and strengthening what you currently have?
2) Opinion - Do you ever dismiss ideas without analysis? There have been many opportunities that were missed because opinionated management failed to see the wider picture.
3) Routine - Just because something worked in the past does not mean that it will continue to work in the future.
4) Emotion - Is the reason for your decision based on analysis, or emotion? Many managers are driven by their fears and desires without ever stopping to justify the reason for their fear or hatred or love. Often these prove to be unjustified and unjustifiable.
5) Ego - Do you make decisions because you are the cleverest, the biggest, the market leader? Are you obsessed with your own image and abilities? Many leaders in the past also thought that they were invincible. A quick look at history shows that they were not!
6) Success - Over-confidence is dangerous and can blind you to competitors seeking to emulate your success.
7) Hope - Can you justify your reasons why things will improve, or are you just burying your head in the sand, and refusing to see reality?

These seven deadly business sins are based on some work by Ben Gilad, one of the foremost Competitive Intelligence experts. Businesses need to understand their blindspots - what they would rather not see, and work to remove them. Each of these seven sins is a type of blindspot if it dominates the thinking within the company. It's OK to have each to a certain degree, balanced by the others. (All businesses need to believe in themselves, have hope, aim to make money....). The problem is when one aspect starts to govern the way things are done in the company, preventing rational and logical thought.

 

Books - Competitors (Fahey)

Recommended Book

Competitive-Intelligence-in-the-UK
Competitive Intelligence: Gathering, Analysing and Putting it to Work
Christopher Murphy
Buy UK £ or US$

Read our review of this book

If you are interested in learning about competitive intelligence with a UK / European focus then this book is for you. Most books on CI are written by US authors and take a US perspective. They fail to note the significant differences between what is available in the US and Europe and the UK. For example, in the US the US Freedom of Information Act is key for finding a lot of information. Such legislation has only recently been enacted in the UK and the type of information available is more limited. In contrast, financial information is much easier to obtain in the UK than the US. Murphy's book redresses the balance and fills a gap in guiding the CI newcomer on how to gather CI in Europe.

One of the best sections is a detailed examination of the sources and types of financial CI information that can be obtained within the UK. In fact I think this is unique. Of all the CI books I've read - none give anything like the same depth on this crucial topic.

For a thorough review of this book check out FreePint's book review.

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